Opta’s supercomputer has predicted how many points Champions League teams will need to reach the knockout stage of the tournament.
The new ‘Swiss model’ format gets underway on Tuesday night, with Liverpool facing AC Milan and Aston Villa’s return to Europe’s elite competition coming away at Young Boys.
Ahead of the first six games tonight, Opta’s supercomputer has run 50,000 simulations of the all-new league phase to see how many points teams will likely need to reach the knockout stage or the play-offs.
Teams finishing inside the top eight will qualify for the last-16, while the sides who finish in positions between ninth and 24th will be required to go into the play-offs.
Opta’s simulations predict that teams who get 17 points or above will have a 100 per cent chance of finishing inside the top eight.
Opta’s supercomputer has predicted how many points teams will likely need to finish in the top eight of the Champions League’s new ‘Swiss model’ format to reach the last-16
Opta’s simulations predict Arsenal are most likely to finish eighth in the league phase which would mean they just avoid a spot in the play-offs to reach the last-16
Manchester City and Liverpool are among the top contenders to win the competition
In 98 per cent of simulations, 16 points – equivalent to five wins and a draw or four wins and four draws – are likely to guarantee progress to the first knockout round.
Fifteen points was sufficient for eighth place in 73 per cent of simulations, while 14 points was enough in just 28 per cent of the supercomputer’s simulations.
In the simulations, Arsenal finished in the crucial eighth place cut-off most often.
Mikel Arteta’s side face arguably the most difficult Champions League schedule of the four English sides, with games against Europa League winners Atalanta, Paris Saint-Germain, Shakhtar Donestsk, Inter Milan, Sporting Lisbon, Monaco, Dinamo Zagreb and Girona.
Opta’s supercomputer also predicts that 10 points will likely be enough to reach the play-offs, with that mark being enough in 99 percent of their simulations.
Nine points could still be enough, with teams going through with that figure in 69 per cent of their simulations.
Those with just eight points though only went through in 16 per cent of Opta’s 50,000 attempts at the league phase.
The final play-off spot is said to be most likely occupied by Celtic. The Scottish champions last made it past the old group stage format in the 2012-13 season where they lost to Juventus in the Round of 16.
Aston Villa kickstart their return to the Champions League on Tuesday night at Young Boys
Celtic are seen as the side most likely to finish in the cut-off position to reach the play-offs
Manchester City are the favourites with Opta to win the competition, as they have been given a 25.3 per cent of reclaiming the trophy.
They are followed by Real Madrid with 18.2 per cent, and then perhaps surprisingly, Inter Milan on 10.9 per cent.
Despite only having Arsenal to most likely finish in eighth place in the league phase, Mikel Arteta’s side are fourth favourites to win the competition at 6.3 per cent.
They are followed by Bayer Leverkusen (5.4%), Barcelona (5.2%), Liverpool (4.2%) and both Bayern Munich and PSG on 4.1 per cent.
Liverpool and Aston Villa both play tonight, with Manchester City hosting Inter Milan on Wednesday and Arsenal travelling to Atalanta on Thursday.